Comment naviguer malgré l'incertitude qui règne à la Fed ?

US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell called the Department of Justice’s criminal investigation an “unprecedented attempt” to undermine the independence of the world’s most important central bank. Only a handful of governments in other countries have pursued criminal action against their top monetary policymaker, and almost all of these have been emerging markets. But perhaps in the context of the relentless criticism of Mr Powell by the US president, this move is unsurprising. According to Donald Trump’s past pronouncements, it is clear he not only wants to check the power of the Fed but also use it as another toolkit to steer the economy. In practice, he would like lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, to reduce the cost of the country’s exports and support domestic growth.

In a way, he has already achieved one of these aims – at least in part. The US dollar has shed around 10% against major currencies over the past two years.

But interest rates are a different matter. The Fed has lowered interest rates three times since September 2025, and the benchmark rate now stands at 3.50 to 3.75%. But Mr Trump wants to see further cuts, saying he would like interest rates that befit the US’s status as the “world’s best credit”.

In effect, this could mean rates similar to Switzerland, where the Swiss National Bank’s key level is often at or near 0%. While we expect another 25 basis points cut by the Fed by mid-2026, we don’t anticipate rates close to 0% anytime soon because the US’s current sticky inflation would make it unfeasible. Although Mr Powell appears to be standing firm on resisting political pressure for now, the risk is that when his term ends in May, he is replaced with a more dovish chair, more willing to comply with Mr Trump’s request to lower rates. An announcement on who will be the nominee to replace Mr Powell is likely soon.

Given the current US inflation of 3%, any sharp lowering in rates by the Fed could lead to a steepening in the US yield curve, with a pricing down in the short end and a much higher inflation term premium at the long end.

Given an environment of moderate inflation and threats to the Fed’s credibility, we think strategies focused on global diversification are key, with less US and US dollar concentration. We also hold a preference for higher quality European bonds given the region’s sound fiscal policy. We like gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk and equities due to their robust performance in the face of moderate inflation.

We see four areas where investors can focus in this environment:

1. Inflation-protected government bonds: US Treasury inflation-protected securities adjust their interest and repayment amounts to inflation, helping to offset inflation-related declines in value.
2. Real assets and commodities: Real estate investment trusts and commodities such as copper and metals protect against price increases, as prices tend to rise with inflation. However, considering the tension surrounding Venezuela and Iran reflects a more assertive US policy, we think oil and gas prices could remain under pressure, making an active policy key.
3. Companies in the consumer staples or utilities sector: Such businesses can pass on price increases to consumers, helping their profits grow generally in line with inflation.
4. Private equity and infrastructure: These asset classes are attractive as their values often rise with inflation. In addition, many private market investments are regionally anchored and not US dollar-denominated, reducing currency risk. Private assets are also less responsive to short-term market volatility and offer an illiquidity premium that can generate additional returns during inflationary periods.

In summary, we think political pressure and the absence of further signs of a slowdown in the rate of price increases may increasingly test the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate. Investors should prepare for US inflation to linger longer than markets expect.